Post OBL Raid–Quick Notes

Pakistan’s Sovereignty

US has stationed RADAR evading helicopters in Afghanistan. Since Taliban does not have RADAR, it wont be a stretch to guess whey they plan to fly these to. This raid is not the last. Probably was not the first. I find it impossible to believe that they did not go on a “test run” at night to see if they would be caught.

Did the Army help?

The sooner everyone gets over the delusion that the Army and ISI helped as an institution the better. The resulting loss of honor & dignity is strong enough to fracture the Army. The chief must be an idiot to do this. Trying to palm off the blame to PAF chief and civilian leaders are an indication that the Army is trying to get over this humiliation. Here is a sanity check: Nobody even had a coherent statement to make 3 days after.

What next in the Army/ISI?

If the Army and ISI did not help with this operation, by now they suspect that there are CIA moles inside. Expect still more heads to roll. It would be interesting to scan newspapers over the next several months to see how many Army/ISI operatives get bumped off.

So who helped?

I find it impossible to believe that CIA has not penetrated the ISI. They have had 10 years to cultivate mid-level ISI operatives, who probably are high level ISI operatives now. The repetition of the “courier” story is a red-herring. Someone from within the Armed forces ratted about RADAR installations and operating procedures. Someone from within the ISI ratted out a list of “off limits” houses.

If you truly believe Americans zeroed in on the OBL compound, set up a observation house near OBL compound (and therefore, near PMA Kakul) without getting caught, evaded RADARs in the middle of the night and snatched OBL AND there are no rodents inside Army/ISI — I have a Minar in Lahore that I wish to sell you. If you believe Army & ISI helped, I will throw in a big Mosque in Islamabad for free.

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11 thoughts on “Post OBL Raid–Quick Notes

  1. Major,you of course failed to mention Pious Army’s reflexive honour saving tried and tested method.
    i.e. DO a Kargil/Mumbai on Yindia.Tension heats up sufficiently on Eastern borders so that Pak beepul’s attention can momentarily be deflected,aljo Americans will go back to “saving ‘south asia’ from nuclear war” line.
    My best guess,is another Mumbai,badder and bigger is on cards from charity organisashuns,as we speak.A conventional flare-up will be too obvious of a deflection and of course Pak beepuls also like to erase this Abottabad memory with some distraction or projection.
    This time China will put its weight completely behind,by putting pressure on India from another side unlike in Kargil where Chinese were neutral.

  2. Major.. i don’t agree with ISI and army was caught with their pants down.. there is many things unanswered. one piece in outlook ( http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?271714 ) makes some point that suggest it was a joint op.. and there are many who believe it was so..

    i agree with you that the oft repeated line of a “courier” must be a red herring..

    and the truth about the operation may never emerge in it’s entirely.. but.. but the pointer to what must be truth can be had in which heads roll now.. .

    if pasha’s and kayani’s head rolls .. it will give more credence to the fact that they were not aware of raid.. and was in fact were incompetent. but if it does not.. it suggests that they were involved.

    Also.. another pointer to the truth about the raid can be found in what will be america’s stance after the raids.. (i dont believe in what it says.. i believe in what it does..) a harsher stand against pakistan will now suggest their complicity in sheltering and hiding osama from america… and if it does not occur.. it suggests a different narrative.

  3. Major, perhaps not institutional, but the timing of this is suspicious following the Davis affair and before the planned disengagement in Afghanistan by the US. If you were sheltering OBL as a high value asset for trade, this would be as good a time as any to try to barter for a stake in Afghanistan. May be he got snatched behind their backs before they could make the trade, but the lack of action during the raid is very odd as was the power outage and the slow response of the police following the many phone calls that they received during the operation. Kayani and Pasha had to know of OBL’s presence as must have several in the upper echelons of this rogue organization. Whether they sold him out or had him stolen from them remains to be seen. The US response to this strange affair over the next year will indicate how this deal, if any, was structured. Personally, I think that there is more to this than what your first indications suggest. But kanspirasy lives in the south asian blood, no?

  4. As for heads to roll, did this happen after the disastrous defeat in 1971 or after the Kargil fiasco? My guess is that the army will close ranks as usual and get their media dogs to pin this on the civilian leadership, especially if there was a secret deal with the Americans. Time (and the next billion dollar instalment) will tell.

  5. It wouldn’t be hard for low flying helicopters to evade the radar. They could have flown in valleys beyond the view of the two radar sites designed for 1971-type threats.

  6. Very perceptive indeed, major. An eye-opener for civvies like me.
    I expect it’ll also make an excellent “I told you so” link over the next several months. 🙂

  7. IMHO, the US reached an independent conclusion that Bin Laden lived in that compound and if not him then some other high value target.

    Umrikan officials prob. warned ISI chief Pasha in general and vague terms during his last Wash. visit – to wit that we plan to take out a high value Al Qaeda figure soon, who is based in Pakistan, so are you with us or against us? Pasha prob. denied all knowledge of any such potential booty and he rushed back to Pak in the middle of the night to inform Pak Army brass about Umrikan warning.

    Pak Army brass prob. didn’t know specifically where and who the Umrikans would target. If they did, they might have moved someone else (Mullah Omar or Zawahiri) because they prob. thought Umrikans would never attempt to attack a cantonment so far from FATA. They prob. conveyed to Umrika their deep displeasure at the Umrikan warning, thereby continuing their arrogant game of chicken with Umrika and the rest of the world, a game in which Pak Army has felt so secure in the last few decades.

    So prob. Umrika made a good faith attempt to get Pak Army on board, Pak Army blew the chance and now we are where we are.

  8. Diyar Major.

    I agree with your analysis barring one point on heads rolling. Neither history nor nature of Army/ISI doesnt suport that point. I will get back to your plog after 6 months and see if anyone is punished for the “failure”.

    -Sincerely
    Your plog follower from Yindia

  9. Amerikhan General,” Dekho General Kiya nahin, hum raat ko kuch karne walen hain, live upto your name and here at two tikat to the night show, movie dekho aur chup chap sooo jaoo….. ”

    General Kiya Nahin, ” Lekin…. mera kya hoga, public tho joote maregi”

    Amerikhan General, ” interfere karoge tho pittogay aur logon ko tumhari aasli aaukat pata chal jayegi

    Arrre Public ka kya hai,

    Rao ko bakra banake latka dena”

    General Kiya Nahin, ” Jee Huzur… Aapka hukum saar aankhon pay”

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